The Morning Three: Bent Trends, Fixed Figures, Shared Skills

Friday, 13 November 2026. Today: a 1960 study that predicted the world would end today, a Jamaican agency fixing a costly typo and a medical mission that leaves skills behind. Each shows people changing outcomes.

Life: Forecasts Forget That People Respond

What happened: In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues published a paper in the journal Science titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” Euronews reported on 12 November. Their population curve, built on two thousand years of data, reached infinity on today’s date. Growth later slowed, from above 2 per cent a year in 1963 to below 1 per cent by 2020, as families chose to have fewer children. UN estimates now expect a peak of about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

The lesson: In our view, the forecast failed because it assumed people would keep behaving the same way. Private forecasts often do the same: “I will always struggle with money” or “this team will never change.” Trends describe the past. People can bend them.

Try today: Write down one prediction about your own future that assumes nothing will change. Beside it, list two things that have already changed since you first believed it.

Source: Euronews, “Doomsday study calculated humanity’s end on Friday 13 November 2026” by Patrick Drews (12 November 2026)

Leadership: Correct the Record With the Real Number

What happened: Jamaica’s National Fisheries Authority says a notice on the government procurement system listed a contract for fishing boats and engines at J$6.65 billion, 100 times its real value, The Gleaner reported on 11 November. Acting CEO Dr Zahra Oliphant said the actual value is about J$66.5 million, awarded in February 2026, not October as the notice showed. The contract covers 20 boats and 20 engines, free to fishers who lost vessels to Hurricane Melissa.

The lesson: One way to read this: a public error can cast doubt on useful work. The authority answered with what people need to check: the correct amount, the correct date and what went wrong. Specific facts calm suspicion better than general reassurance, whether you lead a team, a church committee or a household.

Try today: Check one figure you shared this week, such as a price, deadline or budget, against its source. If it is wrong, send a two-line correction with the right number.

Source: The Gleaner, “Fisheries Authority says boat contract awards inflated by 100-fold” by Neville Graham (11 November 2026)

Solutions: Leave Skills Behind, Not Just Supplies

What happened: The Spasticity Management Medical Mission at the University Hospital of the West Indies held its 40th mission from 2 to 5 November, the Jamaica Observer reported on 12 November. Begun in 2009 with partners including Gillette Children’s Hospital in Minnesota, it treats muscle stiffness linked to cerebral palsy, stroke and brain injury. This year, about 40 Jamaican health workers were trained to spot signs of cerebral palsy in infants as young as six months.

What worked: Over 17 years, the mission has delivered an estimated 2,400 injection-treatment sessions and more than 4,000 braces, wheelchairs and other devices. These are demonstrated outputs.

The tradeoff: The report gives no patient-outcome data, and the benefits of earlier detection remain promising, not proven.

The lesson: Visiting help lasts longer when it builds local skill. The model could suit other Caribbean specialties where experts are scarce, and any group that leans on one person’s know-how.

Try today: Pick one task only you know how to do. Spend 15 minutes writing its steps on one page, saved where others can find it.

Source: Jamaica Observer, “UHWI pushes for early cerebral palsy detection” (12 November 2026)

Your Three for Today

Choose three priorities and give each a time:

• Move something forward: the one task that would make the biggest difference today.
• Support someone: who needs your attention, encouragement or a decision?
• Invest in yourself: one thing for your health, learning or wellbeing.

For example: check one shared figure by 10:00, call a friend who feels stuck at 13:00, and write a one-page how-to at 16:00. Your three will differ, and that is fine.

Today’s Question

Which forecast about your own life are you treating as fixed when it might still bend?

This briefing was prepared with AI research and writing assistance under Colin Beharie’s editorial direction. Every fact links to its original source. Spot an error? See our Sources & Corrections policy.