Today's Top Five: Jamaica & the World, Oct. 27, 2026

Good morning, and welcome to Tuesday’s briefing.

Tomorrow marks one year since Hurricane Melissa came ashore at New Hope in Westmoreland. A year on, Jamaica is a country rebuilding roofs, livelihoods and, in many places, its sense of what normal looks like. So today’s Top Five starts there. From there, we look at the government’s push for a 20-year minimum sentence for illegal guns, a court verdict on one of the worst river pollution cases in recent memory, a remarkable comeback in Brazil and the anger spilling onto the streets of France.

Three Jamaican stories, two global ones. They have a common thread: each asks what we owe the people who get hurt first and hurt most. That might be a family under a blue tarpaulin, a fisherman on the Rio Cobre, a teenager in a Paris suburb or a voter in Brazil’s Northeast. Let’s get into it.

1. Melissa, one year on: rebuilding homes and lives

What happened. On October 28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa made landfall near New Hope as a Category 5 storm, with estimated winds of about 160 knots, or roughly 184 miles per hour. The US National Hurricane Center calls it the strongest landfall on record in Jamaica. Officials counted 45 deaths, not including the leptospirosis deaths that followed. A World Bank estimate published in March put physical damage at US$12.2 billion. That is about 41 percent of Jamaica’s 2024 GDP.

Read that last number again. Imagine a household losing four out of every ten dollars it earns in a year, in a single night. That is the hole the country has been climbing out of for twelve months.

Where things stand. The Gleaner’s “Melissa 365” series sums up the mood in a single headline: “We want to build back lives.” Not just houses, lives. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has named the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority as the center of the effort to fix homes, restore roofs and rebuild infrastructure. The diaspora has also played its part. This weekend, diaspora affairs minister Alando Terrelonge praised a US$3.12 billion contribution from Jamaicans overseas.

The anniversary is also a time to honor courage. On National Heroes Day, the St James Municipal Corporation awarded the Hurricane Melissa Medal of Honour to six police officers. In Montego Bay floodwaters, they rescued a 75-year-old woman and a fellow constable. Stories like that one rarely make the international headlines, but they are the country’s real heroes’ gallery.

The rain keeps coming. The weather has not been kind this month either. Heavy rain flooded parts of Montego Bay on October 19. This weekend, the Ministry of Labour and Social Security reported that 56 houses had flooded and 313 residents were affected in Bath, Johnson Town and nearby communities in St Thomas. Relief so far includes food packages, tarpaulins, water buckets, cleaning kits, blankets and hygiene kits. Parish officers are still doing household visits. The temporary shelter at Bath Primary and Junior High has now closed. On Monday, the Meteorological Service lifted flash flood watches and warnings for eight parishes.

Why it matters. A disaster like Melissa does not end when the wind stops. It lives on in damaged roofs that leak at every shower, in farms that lost a full season, and in small businesses that spent their savings to reopen. It also lives in children who still get nervous when the sky turns dark. Recovery is measured in years, not months, and it rests on three things: money, management and morale.

The money is partly there: insurance payouts, multilateral loans and those diaspora remittances. Management is the hard part. Getting materials, contractors and inspections to the right homes in the right order is a logistics problem as much as a financial one. Morale is the part leaders tend to forget. When people see neighbors rebuilt while they are still waiting, trust frays quickly.

The leadership lesson. In my years managing sales teams, I learned that people forgive slow progress far more easily than silence. If the anniversary teaches one thing, it is this: communicate the plan, publish the numbers, and tell people where they stand in the queue. A family that knows its roof is scheduled for March can plan. A family that hears nothing starts to despair.

What to watch. Expect anniversary events across the island tomorrow, plus a flood of progress reports and, no doubt, some sharp criticism. Watch for honest figures on how many homes are fully repaired, how much of the reconstruction money has actually been spent, and whether building standards have been raised so the next storm does less damage. Resilience is not about bouncing back to where we were. It is about building back better than we were.

2. Twenty years for a gun? Jamaica’s tougher law meets the UN

What happened. On Sunday, the Office of the Cabinet released recommendations from the National Security Council, chaired by Prime Minister Holness. They would raise the mandatory minimum sentence for illegal gun possession from 15 years to 20 years. They would also create a new offense for adults who groom children to use, store, transport or acquire illegal guns. The Ministry of National Security and Peace has until the end of November to prepare draft legislation for wider consultation. Before the new rules take effect, the government plans a gun amnesty and a cash buyback program so people can hand in illegal weapons.

The council also wants more thought on cases where children are found with guns, a review of firearms whose licences have expired, and clearer rules separating toy guns from realistic replicas. All of this would amend the Firearms (Prohibition, Restriction and Regulation) Act of 2022.

The pushback. The timing is awkward. This week and next, Jamaica is before the UN Human Rights Committee in Geneva at its 146th session, which runs until November 6. The committee is a panel of 18 independent experts that checks how countries honor the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Jamaica was last reviewed in 2016.

Tamika Harris, president of the Advocates’ Association of Jamaica, called the plan to raise minimums while denying judges discretion “deeply concerning.” She argues it could breach the Charter of Fundamental Rights and Freedoms, which bans inhumane or degrading punishment. She points to the Privy Council’s ruling in the Tafari Morrison case, which accepted that mandatory sentences can be inhumane in some circumstances. Her association wants a safety valve that lets judges avoid sentences that are manifestly excessive.

Jamaicans for Justice, led by Mickel Jackson, has co-written a report to the UN committee with five other groups. It raises a second concern: fatal police shootings rose from 86 in 2019 to 311 in 2025, and this year looks similar. JFJ is calling for police body cameras and a fully funded Office of the Public Defender that would grow into a National Human Rights Institute.

Others have joined the debate. The child-rights group Fi We Children is urging a child-centered approach to the amendments. A private investigator wants firearm license applicants to undergo psychiatric evaluation.

Why it matters. Two things are true at once. Gun violence has devastated Jamaican communities for decades, and the anger behind tougher laws is real and understandable. Every family that has buried a child to a stray bullet knows why the government wants to send a strong message. The new offense targeting adults who use children as gun carriers addresses a real and ugly gap. Gangs recruit minors precisely because the law treats them more gently.

Still, the evidence from around the world is that the certainty of being caught deters crime far more than the length of a sentence. A young man with a gun in his waistband is not running the numbers on 15 years versus 20. He is betting he won’t be caught at all. If clearance rates stay low and trials take years, a longer sentence on paper changes little on the street.

A negotiator’s view. My MBA training was in conflict resolution and negotiation, and this debate looks like a classic standoff of positions rather than interests. The government’s position is “20 years.” The lawyers’ position is “judicial discretion.” But both sides share the same underlying interest: fewer guns, fewer funerals and a justice system people trust. A deal is visible from here. Keep a tough minimum, add a narrow safety valve for truly exceptional cases, and pair it with real investment in detection, forensics and speedy trials. That would give the government its message and the courts their conscience.

What to watch. Watch the questions Jamaica’s delegation faces in Geneva, the committee’s concluding observations once the session ends, and the draft bill due at the end of November. Watch, too, for details of the gun amnesty. A well-run buyback can take a meaningful number of weapons off the streets before a single new sentence is handed down.

3. Guilty: UC Rusal convicted over the 2019 Rio Cobre fish kill

What happened. Seven years after dead fish floated down the Rio Cobre, a court has finally ruled. On Monday, Senior Parish Court Judge Desiree Alleyne in the St Catherine Parish Court found bauxite company UC Rusal guilty under the Wildlife Protection Act. The case concerned wastewater from the Windalco plant that spilled into the river between October 16 and 19, 2019, causing a fish kill.

The judge ruled that under Section 11 of the Act, the prosecution only had to show that the company knew about the breach. The fine is J$100,000, due by November 16. The company has 14 days to appeal. NEPA investigated and began the case, and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions saw it through. The Gleaner later corrected an earlier report: the company was fined, not its managing director.

Why it matters. The verdict matters because it sets a principle. A company that knows its operation is harming a river can be held to account, and prosecutors do not have to prove every link in the chain of intent. That is a meaningful precedent for environmental enforcement in Jamaica.

But the size of the fine tells another story. J$100,000 is well under US$1,000. For a major industrial operation, that is less than a rounding error. Meanwhile, the Rio Cobre is no ordinary river. It runs through the heart of St Catherine, supports fishing families and farms, and has long been part of the parish’s identity. When a fine is smaller than the cost of the lawyers who fought it, the penalty stops being a deterrent and becomes a fee.

There is also the matter of time. The fish died in 2019. The verdict came in 2026. Justice delayed in environmental cases is especially costly, because rivers, fish stocks and the trust of communities do not wait for court dates.

The bigger picture. Bauxite and alumina have been part of Jamaica’s economic story since the 1950s, bringing jobs, foreign exchange and a lot of red dirt. The industry still matters, especially as the country rebuilds after Melissa and needs every source of income it can find. But the balance between industry and environment has to be struck in law, not left to goodwill. The penalties in our environmental statutes were written for another era. If Parliament is serious about protecting rivers like the Rio Cobre, it should update those fines so they are tied to the scale of the harm and the size of the offender.

A word on stewardship. In the opening chapters of Genesis, humanity is placed in the garden “to work it and take care of it.” Work it and take care of it. Both halves matter. Business has every right to use the land. It has no right to use it up. That is not anti-business. It is simply good business over a longer time frame, and the kind of leadership a country should expect from those it gives access to its natural wealth.

What to watch. Whether the company appeals within 14 days, whether the fine is paid by November 16, and whether the case sparks a push in Parliament to modernize environmental penalties.

4. Brazil: Lula wins a record fourth term

What happened. In Sunday’s runoff, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a record fourth term with 51.8 percent of the vote, according to Brazil’s electoral court and the Associated Press. He beat Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, by about 4.4 million votes. It was a comeback. In the first round on October 4, Flávio led with about 47 percent to Lula’s 45, and polls in the final weeks showed a tight race.

Lula, who turns 81 today, won big in the North and Northeast, which offset Flávio’s strength in the South. Flávio has not conceded. He is calling for the result to be annulled, arguing that a Supreme Court-ordered extension of voting hours changed “the rules of the game in the middle of the game.” Legal experts say an annulment faces a very high bar, and the head of the electoral court says the extension did not affect the outcome.

Why it matters. Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and its biggest democracy, so its elections ripple across the hemisphere. In recent years, the region has swung to the right, with a string of victories for candidates close to US President Donald Trump. Trump did not formally endorse Flávio but made his preference clear. Lula’s win breaks that streak and sends a signal that the region’s politics are not moving in only one direction.

The issues that decided the race will sound familiar to Jamaicans. Flávio campaigned on the cost of living, high taxes, debt and above all crime and security, a message that resonated with voters who see violence as their biggest concern. Lula ran on his record of social programs and his appeal to poorer regions. In the end, enough Brazilians decided that the safety net mattered as much as the iron fist.

The governing challenge. Winning is the easy part. Lula will face a Congress with a center-right and right-wing majority, and roughly half the country voted against him. A refusal to concede risks deepening a divide that has already brought Brazil to the brink. Many will remember the January 2023 riots in Brasília after the last election. How both men handle the next few weeks will say a great deal about the health of Brazilian democracy.

The Caribbean lens. Why should a reader in May Pen or Mandeville care? Because Brazil is a major player in agriculture, energy and South-South diplomacy, and its foreign policy shapes the region’s bargaining power with Washington, Beijing and Brussels. Lula has historically emphasized ties across the Global South, including with the Caribbean and Africa. For small states like ours, a Brazil that engages the region is an opportunity worth pursuing, whether in agriculture, renewable energy or disaster resilience.

A leadership note. A comeback at any age is impressive. A comeback that ends with a fourth term, on your 81st birthday week, is a reminder that leadership is not a young person’s game or an old person’s game. It is a game for people who keep showing up. The harder lesson is for the runner-up. Graceful concession is one of democracy’s quiet pillars. It is also a test of character. Losing well can build a future. Refusing to lose can tear down a country.

What to watch. Whether Flávio’s legal challenge gains any traction, how Brazilian markets react this week, and whom Lula picks to manage the economy in a term that begins in January.

5. France: 410,000 in the streets over schools and the cost of living

What happened. On Saturday, about 410,000 people marched across France, including 110,000 in Paris, according to the Interior Ministry. They were protesting soaring living costs and the state of the country’s schools. Most of the marches were peaceful, but clashes broke out in Paris as the main march ended. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said police made nearly 1,000 arrests. Up to 70,000 officers were deployed nationwide, backed by helicopters, armored vehicles and water cannons.

This was the second big weekend in a row. On October 17, roughly 550,000 people marched by the government’s count, and organizers claimed 800,000. That day saw fires, looting and serious injuries, including a teenage protester in Saint-Étienne who lost a hand. Around 3,000 shops were damaged or looted. Nuñez offered to resign afterward, but President Emmanuel Macron refused.

How it started. The movement began with something small: staff shortages at a single high school southeast of Paris. It spread quickly. French public schools lost 15.4 million teaching hours in the 2024-25 school year because absent teachers were not replaced. Students are now demanding 250,000 more university places, an end to the Parcoursup admissions system, more teachers, repairs to schools and universities, an extra €200 a month in student grants and a rent freeze in public student housing.

Then the cost of living poured fuel on the fire. According to the national statistics agency INSEE, energy prices in September were 21.3 percent higher than a year earlier, and overall inflation reached 3.1 percent. The CGT union and student groups have joined forces, and the “yellow vest” movement, which first erupted in 2018, has called for more rallies on October 31.

Why it matters. Macron is in the final months of his presidency, with an election due in May, and his popularity is at its lowest since he took office in 2017. He met high school representatives on Friday and, they say, promised to overhaul university admissions. They want protests to continue until they see concrete measures. The far-right National Rally has accused the government of failing to protect the public. The far left, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has marched with the students. France’s political center is getting squeezed from both sides, and these protests could shape who wins next spring.

It is not just France. Similar cost-of-living and antiwar protests have broken out in Italy, with clashes in Turin, Rome and Bologna. Across Europe, voters are feeling the squeeze of energy prices, and governments are running out of patience and money at the same time.

The view from Norway and Jamaica. Living in Norway, I see how carefully Scandinavian governments watch these protests across the border. They know that even wealthy, stable societies can tip into unrest when people feel unheard. And in Jamaica, we know the same story from our own history. When fuel and food prices rise faster than wages, frustration builds, and it rarely stays quiet. Knutsford Express reported this weekend that its profits dipped because of the oil price spike. When a bus company feels it, so does every commuter and every family budget.

One teacher in France summed up the mood: “The young people who have been demonstrating have not been heard.” That sentence could be written in almost any country right now. When people believe the system is not listening, they move from the ballot box to the street.

The lesson. The French crisis began with a staffing problem in one school. Small, unaddressed grievances grow. Every manager knows this, and so does every coach and every parent. The best time to fix a problem is when it is still small enough to fit in a meeting room. Wait too long and it fills the streets.

What to watch. Whether Macron announces concrete education measures, whether the October 31 yellow vest rallies draw big crowds, and whether the unrest spreads further across Europe as winter energy bills arrive.

Also on the radar

Young Boyz stay perfect. Jamaica’s Under-15 team beat Sri Lanka 6-0 at the FIFA U15 World Cup in Baku, Azerbaijan, for a third straight win.
The Cuba vote. The UN General Assembly is set to vote again on a resolution calling for an end to the US embargo on Cuba. Caribbean countries have consistently voted in favor.
Licence plates. The National Security Council is ending dealer and demonstration licence plates to curb abuse.
Ebola. Nigeria has flown its only confirmed Ebola patient from Abuja to Switzerland for treatment.
Entertainment mourns. Tributes have poured in after the sudden death in Gran Canaria of Apryl McIntosh-Smith, manager of Ras-I and a JaRIA representative.

The takeaway

Look at today’s five stories together and a pattern appears. A storm-battered country trying to keep its people’s trust while it rebuilds. A government trying to stop gun violence without losing sight of justice. A river polluted and a fine that barely registers. A divided nation that just chose its leader and now has to accept the result. A wealthy country discovering that ignored grievances do not disappear.

The common thread is listening. Leaders who listen early spend less time managing crises later. Communities that feel heard are more patient with slow progress. And people who believe the rules are fair are more willing to accept outcomes they don’t like.

As Jamaica pauses tomorrow to remember Melissa, let’s remember the people still waiting for a roof, and let’s thank those who have worked through the year to rebuild. Walk good, and have a blessed Tuesday.

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